"It is not surprising that Q4FY20 GDP print stands at 3.1% given the weakness in demand seen in the economy in the pre-Covid months. In the opinion of Acuité Ratings, the figures for FY20 largely reflect the intensification of the economic slowdown that started to build up from Q2/Q3 of FY19. The gradual slowdown in the growth trajectory is indicated in the revised quarterly GDP figures and the estimated print for FY20 at 4.2% as compared to 6.1% in FY19. Clearly, the growth momentum got further dampened towards the year end due to the economic disruption from the virus outbreak that already started a couple of weeks before the onset of the pan India lockdown in the last week of March. While the decline in growth of private consumption to 5.3% in FY20 was somewhat expected, the larger worry is the decline in gross fixed capital formation at 2.8% as compared to a growth of 9.8% in the previous year. The contraction in exports at 3.6% vis-à-vis 12.3% in the previous year also highlights the stress in the external sector." |
