Acuité expects FY23 GDP growth estimate at 7.5% with steady support from government's thrust on infrastructure segment along with prospects of normal monsoon and robust vaccination coverage which is likely to provide some support to overall growth momentum.
Key takeaways from Growth:
1. India Q4 FY22 GDP growth decelerated to 4.1% YoY from 5.4% in Q3, partly on account of the third pandemic wave, moderating the GDP growth to 8.7% in FY22, which still is the highest in current series and reflects a healthy recovery from the pandemic disruption.
2. The domestic macroeconomic conditions consolidated their recent strength in Apr-22, as economic activity continued to normalize further despite the recent uptick in Covid infections in some states.
3. With nearly 70% of the population fully vaccinated, contact-intensive services are leading the recovery amidst complete opening up of the economy.
4. Among the broad spate of incremental lead indicators, most continued to display strength for months of Mar-22 and Apr-22.
5. Nevertheless, geopolitics led surge in commodity prices, pass-through to domestic prices, slowdown in global growth, prolonged supply disruptions are downside risks likely to make a dent on growth momentum, in addition to financial market volatility from global monetary policy tightening now firmly underway.
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