Mr. Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
The upside momentum continued in the market with range bound action on Monday and Nifty closed the day higher by 132 points. After opening on a sharp upside gap of 225 points, the market shifted into a gradual weakness from the highs with range bound action. The narrow range movement continued for the whole session and the opening upside gap has been filled partially.
A reasonable negative candle was formed on the daily chart with gap up opening. Technically, this action signal a choppy movement in the market after a gap up opening. The crucial overhead resistance of 15800 levels (previous swing lows, as per the concept of change in polarity) has been taken out on the upside. But, the lack of further upside post upside breakout and a formation of range bound action subsequently after the opening could dampen the effort of bulls to sustain the highs.
The present area of 15800 has been a significant value area on the daily/weekly chart. A long range bear candle was formed during recent downside breakout of Nifty around 15800 levels. Having showed such lackluster type of movement after the upside breakout on Monday, the sustainability of Nifty above 15800 for long period of time could be doubtful.
Conclusion: The short term trend of Nifty continues to be positive. Display of lack of strength to sustain the highs during upside breakout is likely to result in further consolidation or downward correction from the highs. On the other side, a decisive upmove above 15900 could open further upside towards another hurdle of 16200 levels.