Gold and Crude Oil - April 19, 2023 - HDFC Securities
Posted On:
2023-04-19 17:03:47 (Time Zone: IST)
By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.
Gold prices traded lower Wednesday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading down by 0.95% at $1986.0 per ounce. Gold June future contract at MCX were trading down by 0.95% at Rs 59915 per 10 grams by noon session.
Gold prices declined in European trading hours on Wednesday as pullback in US dollar and bond yield. The dollar traded higher on Wednesday after seesawing along with bond market volatility in recent sessions, U.S. Treasury yields with the 10-year note is trading up by 0.95%. Recent uptick in bond market as signs that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-hiking cycle will extend later into the year. Meanwhile, Markets are pricing in around 86% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May. On investment front, ETF funds cut 66,464 troy ounces of gold from their holdings on Monday session. We expect gold price could decline further to $1965 level per ounce once it breaks support of $1980 per ounce. Comex spot gold having supports at $ 1965/$1950 per ounce and resistances at $2005/$2017 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having support at Rs 59400 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 60370 per 10 grams.
Crude Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil were trading down by 1.95% at $79.30 per barrel. Crude oil prices slipped more than4.0% from recent high as the bullish sentiment from OPEC+ production cuts faded against a backdrop of weaker than expected demand from US a top oil consuming country. Also, expectation of further aggressive rate hike by Federal Reserve weighed on prices. Higher interest rate scenario could hurt economic growth and investors worried about oil demand growth.
We expect Crude oil prices can fall further from current level and Nymex WTI Crude oil price may retest $77.50 level. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices having resistances at $81.40/$82.80 per barrel and supports at $79.0/$77.50 per barrel for the day. MCX Crude Oil May future has support at Rs 6460 and resistance at Rs 6720.
