Gold and Crude Oil - July 4, 2023 - HDFC Securities
Posted On:
2023-07-04 19:09:46 (Time Zone: IST)
By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, with the spot gold price at Comex trading up by 0.45% at $1929 per ounce. Gold August future contract at MCX trading higher by 0.32% at Rs 58465 per 10 grams.
Following poorer than anticipated economic data on Monday, safe-haven purchases are still helping to sustain gold prices. US factory activity fell to its weakest level in more than three years, while global PMI data has also been disappointing. Meanwhile, the dollar index is stuck in a range as investors await the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC June meeting minutes, which could provide further insights on the interest rate front.
Going forward, we expect gold prices to consolidate within a range and volume to remain thin for the day as a holiday in US markets on the back of Independence Day. Comex spot gold has support at $1903 per ounce and resistance at $1935 per ounce. MCX Gold August future has support at Rs 57950 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 58570 per 10 grams.
Crude oil prices traded up on Tuesday, with the benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading up by 0.80% at $70.68 per barrel. The price of oil increased as traders evaluated the latest effort by OPEC+'s two stalwart members, Saudi Arabia and Russia, to support prices by reducing supplies. Saudi Arabia's existing curbs agreed with OPEC+ continued in August and could be extended further, according to a statement published by the state-run Saudi Press Agency. Additionally, Russia has also announced a new reduction of its daily oil exports by 500,000 barrels for the next month.
On the technical front, NYMEX WIT crude oil prices bounced from a support level of $69.60. We expect that until prices hold above the support level of $69.60, they can rally towards the $72.25 level. MCX Crude Oil July contract has immediate resistance at Rs 5880. If the price crosses this level, it will move towards the 5980 level, and the area around Rs 5760 acts as support for the day.
