Gold and Crude Oil - July 11, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices traded slightly higher on Tuesday, with the gold price at Comex trading up by 0.55% at $1935 per ounce. Gold August future contract at MCX is trading up by 0.30% at Rs 58870 per 10 grams.

Comex gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, following weakness in the dollar index and US treasury yields. The dollar index traded at 101.33, its lowest level since May 12, after comments by Federal Reserve officials reinforced market expectations that the U.S. central bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. In the domestic market, the strength of the rupee capped the gains at overseas gold prices. The rupee has appreciated nearly 0.33% against the US dollar in the past two sessions.

We expect Comex gold prices to trade between $1920 to $1950 with a positive bias for the day. The upside will extend to $1965/oz if the price crosses above resistance at the $1950 level. MCX Gold August future has support at Rs 58405 per 10 grams and resistance at Rs 59080 per 10 grams.

Crude oil prices advanced on Tuesday, with the benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading up by 0.40% at $73.50 per barrel. Investor sentiment improved on the demand front following some measures announced by China to support its ailing property market. The oil market's short-term fundamentals are strengthening after continued efforts by OPEC and its alliance to balance the market, which brought crude oil prices to a recent swing high. Investors are now looking ahead to U.S. crude inventory data due later on Tuesday from industry group the American Petroleum Institute.

We expect crude oil prices to consolidate in the upper range. NYMEX WTI crude has first resistance at $74.84 (200 DEMA). If it surpasses this barrier, it will rally towards the $77.0 level. On the flip side, it has immediate support at 71.05. MCX Crude Oil July contract has resistance at Rs 6170 and support at Rs 5980.