By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.
Gold prices traded higher on Friday, with the spot gold price at Comex trading up by 0.20% at $1944 per ounce. While the gold October future contract at MCX is trading higher by 0.17% at Rs 59480 per 10 grams.
Gold prices recovered from earlier losses before the important macro data from the US. The US government employment report and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August will be released later today, which will set the tone for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision at its next meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar index is trading slightly lower at 103.24 after rising more than 0.40% in the previous session.
We believe any major change in payroll data from expectations could cause volatility in bullion. From a technical perspective, the short-term trend remains moderately bullish until Comex gold trades above the $1924 level, and traders should adopt a buy-on-dip strategy. Comex spot gold has resistance at $1955-$1960 and support at $1924 for the day. The MCX Gold October future is expected to trade in a range of Rs. 59025 to Rs. 59700.
Crude oil advanced on Friday, with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading up by 1.20% at $84.50 per barrel against the previous close. Crude oil is trading at a three-week high, and so far, this week, prices have surged more than 5.0% as supply-side pressure keeps the price higher. With the OPEC countries and its allies cutting back on supply to rebalance the market. OPEC+ is meeting next week to discuss its next moves, and the market expects the production cuts to be extended for another month. Russia has already signalled it will extend export curbs.
We expect bullish momentum to continue in crude oil, and the price can rally further from its current level. From a level perspective, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil has immediate resistance at $84.8; then 87.0 is the next major resistance, and it has support at $82.20 for the day. The MCX crude oil September contract has support at Rs. 6870 and resistance at Rs. 7060.
