Crude Oil and Natural Gas Outlook - March 23, 2022 - Reliance Securities

Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

International oil prices fell on Tuesday in a volatile trading session amid speculation that EU nations may not ban Russian oil imports.

Domestic crude oil and Energy Index futures ended higher on Tuesday.

EU foreign ministers were split on the ban as some countries, including Germany, say the bloc is too dependent on Russia's fossil fuels to withstand such a step.

Adding to supply shortages, oil exports by Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) may fall by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) while it repairs two of three mooring points damaged by a storm in Russia's section of the Black Sea, RIA news agency.

Meanwhile, according to American Petroleum Institute data crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels for the week ended March 18.

On the by-product side, gasoline inventories fell by 626,000 barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 826,000 barrels.

International oil prices rose this early Wednesday morning in Asian trade ahead of EIA data and after Russia warns of sharp Caspian pipeline oil export drop after storm.

Technically, if WTI May trade above $110.00 level, it could continue its bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at $112.71-$116.16. A trade below could pull prices to the support zone at $106.46-$103.66.

Domestic crude oil prices could start with gains this early Wednesday morning, tracking a positive start in the overseas prices.

Technically, if MCX Crude Oil April trade above 8425 level, it could continue its bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at 8670-8930. A trade below could pull prices to the support zone at 8160-7915.

U.S. Natural gas (NG) prices surged higher on Tuesday rising more than 5% lifted by rising consumption.

Indian NG prices also ended stronger on Tuesday, tracking overseas prices.

Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 3.2% on average this report week compared with the previous report week.

U.S. NG prices have started with marginal cuts this early Wednesday morning in Asian trade amid profit taking.

Technically, if NG May contract trade above $5.090 level, it could continue its bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at $5.302-$5.416. However, a trade below could pull prices to the support zone at $4.975-$4.762.

Domestic NG prices could start flat to weaker this early Wednesday morning tracking a negative start in the overseas prices.

Technically, if MCX NG March contract trades above 385.83 level, it could continue its bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at 400.57-408.53. However, a trade below could pull prices to the support zone at 377.87-363.13.