Gold and Crude Oil - March 31, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices traded lower on Friday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading down by 0.15% at $1973.0 per ounce. Gold June future contract at MCX were trading down by 0.17% at Rs 59780 per 10 grams by noon session.

Gold prices moved higher on previous session after weaker US macro data, US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 fell slightly lower, from 2.7% to 2.6%, while weekly jobless claims higher than forecasted. For this month Comex Gold is up more than 7% bolstered by safe haven demand after the banking-industry turmoil and concerns that the US economy may tip into recession. Now investors focus will be on today's US PCE price index data which is consider fed's preferred tool for reviewing inflation trend. We expect gold prices could rally further if PCE price index data will come lower than or in line with market forecast. Comex spot gold having support at $ 1955 per ounce and resistance at $2010 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having support at Rs 59480 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 60340 per 10 grams.

Crude Oil prices retreated on Friday as short term traders took profit after recent rallied in price with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil were trading down by 0.60% at $73.80 per barrel. WTI Crude oil price still up almost 6.0% for this week on back of supply concern and improved risk on sentiment. Earlier this week disruption of Kurdistan's oil exports looks set to continue into further, with oil production in the reason being shut in due to limited storage capacity. Also U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week added bullish sentiment in oil price.

We expect Crude oil price should consolidate in upper range with positive bias. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices face resistance at $75.0 per barrel and support at $71.95 per barrel for the day. MCX Crude Oil April future having supports at Rs 6200 and resistance at Rs 6020 for the day.